The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024
Dec 28, 2024
auto_awesome
Dive into the inaugural Riskies awards, celebrating the year's boldest and craziest decisions across politics, sports, and business! Discover the best and worst choices, like Theo the trader's hero call versus a major Bitcoin blunder. Explore the backlash over Greta Gerwig's lack of Oscar recognition and Juan Soto's groundbreaking contract move. The conversation also reveals the emotional undercurrents in Biden's re-election efforts, Apple’s puzzling withdrawal from EVs, and the humorous side of political betting. Get ready for a mix of laughs and insights!
Theo's bold betting decision on Trump's political success highlights the potential rewards of calculated risks in uncertain markets.
Biden's emotionally-driven choices underscore the need for objectivity in political leadership to avoid misaligned decision-making strategies.
Deep dives
Hero Call of the Year
The award for Hero Call of the Year highlights a bold decision by a trader known as Theo, who placed significant bets on the outcome of a political event predicting that Trump would win. This decision was seen as risky given the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the election, where many forecasts offered little confidence. However, Theo's strategic use of polling to gauge public sentiment ultimately paid off, resulting in substantial financial gains from his accurate prediction. This example illustrates the power of calculated risk-taking in uncertain markets, as well as the potential for significant rewards when one has the confidence to act contrary to mainstream opinions.
Worst Fold of the Year
The discussion around the Worst Fold of the Year centers on a decision made by a prominent politician, who failed to select a more popular and charismatic candidate as their running mate. This move, which many considered an obvious choice, ultimately backfired and raised questions about the campaign's judgment. The conversation draws parallels to poker, where failing to capitalize on a favorable situation can lead to criticism and the perception of a poor tactical decision. This incident serves as a reminder of how critical it is to recognize opportunities and utilize them effectively in both politics and decision-making scenarios.
Tilt of the Year
The Tilt of the Year award is given to Joe Biden for his emotionally driven decisions, particularly his choice to run for re-election and the controversial pardon of his son. This situation exemplifies how emotional influences can cloud judgment, leading to decisions that may not align with rational analysis or expected outcomes. Biden's actions were perceived as illustrating a misalignment between personal sentiments and political strategy, resulting in a range of criticisms. The recognition of this tilt emphasizes the importance of maintaining objectivity in political leadership and decision-making.
We hear from Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, poker sharps and co-hosts of the Pushkin show “Risky Business,” as they share the year’s most notable decisions in their first annual Riskies award show. What were the best, worst and wildest decisions of 2024, from politics to sports to business? Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024.