Understanding the Macro Landscape and Market Narratives with Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden, and Roger Hirst
Oct 12, 2023
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Raoul Pal and Julian Bridgen discuss the macro landscape and market narratives, including challenges in global markets, effects of rising interest rates, and the importance of having a framework. Roger Hirst explores understanding multiple narratives in markets and the definition of a recession.
Investors should develop a framework to interpret and analyze different narratives in the market.
Julian Brigden expects an upward trend in rates and a bearish outlook for fixed income for the next 20 years.
Deep dives
Heightened Market Volatility and Active Management Opportunities
The podcast episode discusses the heightened market volatility and how investors can navigate and profit from it. The speakers, Raul and Julian Brigden, have differing views on the market cycles and instability. While Raul believes in an increasingly unstable market and advocates for more active management, Julian examines the Treasury Market and the potential risks of global markets absorbing high issuance levels. He also discusses the shift from monetary dominance to fiscal dominance, driven by demands for collective policy responses in various areas including climate change, geopolitical tensions, and demographic challenges. Julian expresses a bearish outlook for fixed income for the next 20 years, expecting an upward trend in rates.
The Divergent Narratives About Recession and Normality
The podcast delves into different narratives about recessions and normal economic cycles. One narrative, represented by Raul, argues that the recession is already behind and that the market downturn was a result of higher yields rather than economic weakness. The discussion also covers traditional indicators of recession like unemployment rate and ISM manufacturing. Another narrative, represented by David Rosenberg, suggests that a recession is yet to come, citing historical data and the lag effect between rate hikes and recession. The emergence of small pockets of recessionary events in certain sectors and regions is also discussed.
The Importance of Framework and Different Market Perspectives
The podcast emphasizes the importance of having a framework to interpret and analyze different perspectives and narratives in the market. It highlights the validity of various viewpoints and the value of a framework for both day traders and long-term investors. The speaker, Roger Hurst, breaks down the concept of 'normality' during recessions, highlighting key elements like unemployment, ISM manufacturing, and tradable lows in the equity market. He discusses the importance of frameworks in navigating the complex and divergent narratives present in the current economic landscape.
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Julian Bridgen, co-founder of MI2 Partners, and Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, share the latest updates to their macro frameworks. This discussion was originally part of September's monthly Insider Talks for Pro Macro members. Then, in a snippet from a recent RVIP event in London, we’ll hear Roger Hirst discuss how investors can better understand the many competing narratives at play in markets today.