The Daily Signal Victor Davis Hanson: The Optimistic, the Realistic, and the Pessimistic Scenarios for Iran
Jun 20, 2025
The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict brings a swirl of opinions from varying perspectives. Is there a real chance for regime change in Iran? Victor Davis Hanson reveals a 50-50 split on that, but only a quarter of the time might new leaders be an improvement. Exploring the scenarios, he discusses the complexities of military intervention and the roles of external powers like Russia and China. He emphasizes the significant uncertainty that complicates understanding the future dynamics of the region.
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Varied Scenarios in Iran Conflict
- The war shows mixed possibilities ranging from regime change to continued conflict.
- Success depends on various scenarios including Israeli actions and internal Iranian dynamics.
Limits of Military Action
- Military strikes alone rarely topple regimes or yield lasting change.
- Negotiations and monitors might offer a better solution than prolonged war.
Domestic Concerns Over Intervention
- Some U.S. critics fear involvement could spark prolonged conflict and global retaliation from Iran.
- There is concern about fulfilling campaign promises against unnecessary wars.