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Trying to keep a fragile trade truce alive

Oct 16, 2025
U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting to maintain a delicate trade truce amid rising tensions. Treasury Secretary hints at optimism with upcoming talks between Trump and Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, insights from non-governmental economic data reveal trends in labor and inflation. Additionally, countries are competing to attract AI infrastructure, highlighting the challenges faced by startups lacking local computing resources. The global race for AI dominance underscores the shifting tech landscape.
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INSIGHT

Fragile U.S.-China Trade Truce

  • U.S.-China tariff tensions have produced a six-month shaky truce scheduled to expire November 10th.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says extension depends on China not imposing rare earth export controls.
ADVICE

Monitor Price Signals Closely

  • Watch inflation signals in anecdotes and regional Fed surveys to judge whether price rises are temporary.
  • Monitor input-price increases and service-sector stickiness before assuming tariffs are one-time effects.
INSIGHT

How Tariffs Can Trigger Price Contagion

  • 'Opportunistic pricing' means firms raise prices when competition weakens due to tariffs.
  • That contagion can turn tariff shocks into persistent inflation rather than one-time jumps.
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