It Could Happen Here Oops All Gambling, Political Betting Joins the News
Dec 9, 2025
Explore the troubling alliance between news networks and gambling sites, turning predictions into profit. Garrison delves into how prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate, alongside claims of regulatory evasion. Learn about insider trading concerns and the reach of these platforms globally, alongside their potential harms. The discussion also highlights misconceptions between voting odds and polls. Garrison calls for stricter regulations, warning that political betting may lead to societal addiction and ethical issues.
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Newsrooms Normalizing Betting Data
- News networks are embedding real-time betting odds into political reporting, blurring lines between journalism and gambling.
- Kalshi and Polymarket present market odds as informative signals despite being driven by wagers, not polls.
How Prediction Markets Work
- Prediction markets let users bet yes/no on world events and shift odds as money flows.
- These platforms now handle billions in volume and large wagers on geopolitics and elections.
Regulatory Framing Masks Gambling
- Firms claim prediction markets are not gambling by framing contracts as financial derivatives.
- Kalshi secured CFTC licensing, and courts have allowed some election betting despite CFTC concerns.