It Could Happen Here Oops All Gambling, Political Betting Joins the News
Dec 9, 2025
Explore the troubling alliance between news networks and gambling sites, turning predictions into profit. Garrison delves into how prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate, alongside claims of regulatory evasion. Learn about insider trading concerns and the reach of these platforms globally, alongside their potential harms. The discussion also highlights misconceptions between voting odds and polls. Garrison calls for stricter regulations, warning that political betting may lead to societal addiction and ethical issues.
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Regulatory Framing Masks Gambling
- Firms claim prediction markets are not gambling by framing contracts as financial derivatives.
- Kalshi secured CFTC licensing, and courts have allowed some election betting despite CFTC concerns.
Political Ties And Regulatory Shifts
- Donald Trump Jr. became a strategic advisor at Kalshi and Polymarket drew political investment.
- Shortly after, regulatory decisions eased Polymarket's path back into the U.S. market.
Insider Information Is Encouraged
- Platform executives openly tolerate insider information because it can improve market accuracy.
- Blockchain settlement makes reversing suspected insider wins difficult or impossible.