The Business of Bonds with PGIM Fixed Income’s Co-CIO
Jun 11, 2024
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Greg Peters, Co-CIO at PGIM Fixed Income, and Brian Barnhurst discuss scenario-based investing, fixed income opportunities, constructing portfolios, and integrating geopolitics in a conversation on navigating current market dynamics.
Scenario-based approach encourages risk assessment through various outcomes.
Emphasis on high-quality assets and structured products for protective qualities in portfolio construction.
Deep dives
Evolution of the Investment Process and Focus on Communication
The firm's investment process has evolved under Greg's co-CIO role, emphasizing the importance of fundamental bottom-up valuation and diversifying viewpoints for constructive dialogue. Communication and extracting value from interactions have become integral. The focus on risk-adjusted return has led to portfolio reassessment, managing market and non-systematic risks while balancing upside and downside outcomes.
Scenario-Based Approach and Risk Assessment
Greg introduced a scenario-based approach to move away from point estimates, encouraging imagination and pre-mortem analysis for better risk assessment. This method aligns with risk-adjusted returns, evaluating various outcomes and their impact on portfolios. The scenario process aids in clarifying upside and downside risks, contributing to a more robust investment strategy.
Secular Shifts and Macroeconomic Changes Post-Pandemic
Greg outlines significant shifts post-pandemic, including economic, geopolitical, and inflationary changes. The evolving global economic growth, altered inflation dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal dominance impacting central banks signify a transformed investment landscape. These shifts emphasize the need for adaptability in portfolio construction to navigate the changing macroeconomic environment.
Portfolio Construction and Structured Product Opportunities
In portfolio construction, the emphasis lies on careful risk management amidst wider valuations. Preference for high-quality assets is evident, leveraging structured products like CLOs and agency mortgages for protective qualities. Despite thin risk premiums, strategies focus on dispersion levels for alpha generation within structured products, aligning with a disciplined valuation approach.
Bonds are back and with fixed income gaining interest with investors, we’re taking an introspective look at our investment process and how we’re navigating current market dynamics here at PGIM Fixed Income. We touch on our scenario-based approach, investment views, the fixed income opportunity set we see ahead, and what it means for us as we construct portfolios.
This episode features PGIM Fixed Income’s Greg Peters, Co-Chief Investment Officer, and host, Brian Barnhurst, CFA, Head of Global Credit Research.
Recorded on May 31, 2024.
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