When Public Opinion Goes to the Ballot Box

Public opinion polls often show large majorities in favor of hypothetical changes in public policy, such as universal background checks for gun purchases. But when voters have the opportunity to enact those changes in ballot measure initiative campaigns, the results are usually much closer. Jonathan Robinson finds that state public opinion is related to initiative voting results, but large majorities are substantially reduced. Part of the reason is status quo bias: the electoral context makes it clear that voters are being asked to change current law. Robinson is a political practitioner engaged in scholarship, who merges the perspectives of both worlds. As co-author of a major report on voter turnout and vote swings in 2020, he also looks ahead to 2022.