Live from HSBC Hong Kong, Jing Liu, Michelle Kwok, and Frank Lee discuss the state of the Chinese economy, optimism in China's growth despite recent data, implications of weaker growth in China for the region, developments in Southeast Asian equity markets, temple hunting in Indonesia, supply chain relocation in ASEAN, and the rise of artificial intelligence in the tech world.
Despite pessimism, China's economy shows resilience with growth rate higher than many countries.
Chinese housing market faces challenges but there is potential for a transition towards sustainable growth model.
Deep dives
China's Economy Still Shows Bright Spots Amidst Pessimism
Despite the pessimism surrounding the Chinese economy, there are still bright spots indicating resilience. The growth rate, though lower than previous years, remains higher than many other countries. The service sector has shown strong performance, with clear data supporting growth in service retail sales and other high-frequency indicators. China's EV sector has also experienced significant growth. These positive indicators suggest that the current situation in China may not be as dire as perceived.
Challenges and Prospects in the Chinese Housing Market
The Chinese housing market is facing challenges as prices decline and the market psychology is shaken. However, there is still some pent-up demand from households needing to buy homes for specific reasons, such as school districts. The overall size of the housing market has decreased, but there is potential for a transition towards a more consumption-driven and sustainable growth model. The government's focus on soft infrastructure, promoting access to public services, and green transition also present promising opportunities for growth.
Implications for Southeast Asia and the Tech Industry
Weakness in the Chinese economy, particularly in the construction sector, has implications for Southeast Asia and global commodity markets, contributing to disinflationary pressures. However, Southeast Asia's equity markets are showing signs of growth, with new companies entering the markets and improvements in access and infrastructure fostering new consumer markets. Additionally, Southeast Asia is benefitting from supply chain relocations from China, particularly in the tech industry. The growth of artificial intelligence (AI) presents opportunities for tech hardware companies, with established players like NVIDIA leading the way. However, challenges remain in terms of monetizing AI and ensuring sustainable profitability.
Fred and Herald take the podcast live for the first time ever, recording in front of a studio audience at HSBC's Asia headquarters, alongside special guests Jing Liu, Michelle Kwok and Frank Lee.
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Disclosures and Disclaimers: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/51/QT7sSGs