Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja back in January 2024 on Japan's existential demographic crisis, analyzing how collapsing fertility rates and population aging threaten the nation's economic and geopolitical future. The discussion explores cultural barriers to family formation, automation limitations, and Japan's dilemma between preserving identity versus accepting transformative change.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK |

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Demographic Crisis

Fertility rate collapsed to 1.3 - population shrinking from 125M to 50M this century
Aging dependency ratio crushing economy - fewer workers supporting more elderly
Young people may emigrate if decline accelerates

Cultural Challenges

Work vs. family contradiction - salaryman culture prioritizes career over children
Proposed solution: Require executives to have 2+ kids
97% ethnic homogeneity creates social cohesion but limits immigration options

Economic Implications

Automation needs scale - fewer people makes it less effective
Japan's productivity gains vanish when controlling for aging
Risk of economic tailspin and brain drain

Military Transformation

From pacifist to military power - world-class navy, converting carriers for F-35Bs
Nuclear weapons ready - space program + plutonium = "some assembly required"
Key player in Taiwan scenarios

Geopolitical Positioning

Economically tied to China, security-wise allied with US
Will stay politically independent from China due to nationalism
Would go nuclear if US withdraws from East Asia

Japan must choose: Maintain cultural identity and accept economic decline, or transform through immigration to stay economically viable. Currently choosing the former while hoping automation saves them.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On The Beat: Mego with Chris Price of The Boston Globe with the latest on Christian Gonzalez