Hannah Lucinda Smith, Monocle’s Istanbul correspondent, shares firsthand insights from her visit to Syria post-Assad, capturing the mixed feelings among civilians. Zaina Erhaim, a Syrian journalist, highlights the plight of women and ordinary citizens as they navigate this new landscape. Faysal Itani, Senior Director at the New Lines Institute, connects the geopolitical future of Syria with its neighbors, shedding light on the complex web of regional dynamics. Together, they explore hope amid uncertainty and the urgent need for unity in a fragmented nation.
The recent ousting of Bashar al-Assad has sparked hope among Syrians, but uncertainty remains about the governance of his successor, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Ongoing violence and deep-seated sectarian divisions pose significant challenges for national unity and the prospects of a successful political transition in Syria.
Deep dives
Syria's Revolution and Aftermath
The Syrian revolution, which began on March 15, 2011, aimed to end the four-decade rule of the Assad regime, but it quickly devolved into a devastating civil war involving numerous external forces. As a result of the conflict, hundreds of thousands are estimated to have died, and over 14 million people were displaced, with many fleeing to neighboring countries. The recent ousting of President Bashar al-Assad in December was seen as a glimmer of hope; however, the rise of his successor, Ahmed al-Shara, initially associated with jihadist groups, has raised concerns among civilians about the future for stability and governance in Syria. The ongoing violence, including a recent massacre of Alawite civilians, underscores that the country’s turmoil may not be over.
Joy and Uncertainty in Damascus
Upon landing in Damascus after the regime change, Syrians displayed overwhelming emotions, celebrating the departure of Assad with songs and tears of joy. For many returning to their homeland for the first time since the war erupted, the atmosphere was electrifying, filled with laughter and relief, as they witnessed public symbols of oppression being defaced. However, this joy coexisted with uncertainty about the new leadership, especially regarding al-Shara’s ability to govern inclusively and whether his administration could effectively address the country's dire economic situation. Many are skeptical about the new leader’s commitment to democracy, fearing a regression to past authoritarian policies that could undermine the freedoms currently being welcomed.
Sectarian Divisions and Challenges for Unity
The deeply entrenched sectarian divisions in Syria, historically exacerbated by the Assad regime's divide-and-rule strategies, pose significant hurdles to national unity. Despite a weariness for peace among the population, the resurgence of violence, particularly against minority groups, indicates that trust among different communities remains fragile. There is a shared desire among civilians for a reconciliation process that could pave the way for healing and rebuilding, yet the presence of sectarian tensions complicates efforts to establish an inclusive political framework. For Syria to stabilize, a potent blend of grassroots dialogue and international support will be essential to create a path toward a cohesive society.
International Interests and Syria's Future
As Syria grapples with the challenges of reconstruction and political transition, neighboring countries and global powers maintain vested interests in its fate, complicating its prospects for autonomy. The recent diplomatic activity signals a cautious optimism, with Western and regional states debating how best to engage with Syria's new regime while managing the sensitive dynamics of Kurdish autonomy and Iranian influence. Meanwhile, Hezbollah's diminished status and shifts in regional allegiances add layers of complexity to Syria's geopolitical landscape, leaving many unsure whether outside powers will step back or amplify their involvement. Ultimately, Syria's future hinges on its ability to navigate this geopolitical cauldron, which could either lead to stabilization or further fragmentation.
The unloading of Bashar al-Assad in December was a hopeful moment for Syria. The installation of his successor, jihadist commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, was a more nervous one. We discuss the mood among civilians with journalist Zaina Erhaim and Monocle’s Hannah Lucinda Smith, following the latter’s trip to Damascus in February. We also hear Slovenia’s foreign affairs minister, Tanja Fajon, who has met Syria’s interim president, and consider the implications for the country’s neighbours with Faysal Itani, the senior director of Middle East programs at the New Lines Institute.
