SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

45 snips

Jun 28, 2025

Rob Carver and Niels dive into the current market's uncertain state, analyzing the impacts of recent changes in banking regulations and shipping volumes on global demand. They explore the math behind drawdowns and the complexities of position sizing, as well as the common misconceptions about diversification. The discussion highlights the value of avoiding mistakes in a highly competitive environment and examines how fresh perspectives from traders can invigorate strategies. It's a thought-provoking look at maintaining an edge in trading.

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ANECDOTE

Rob's Conference Day Anecdote

Rob Carver shares an experience of spending a day in a cool conference room and enjoying an evening on a London rooftop terrace.
He found this mix of work and pleasant environment uplifting amid the UK heatwave.

INSIGHT

Regulatory Changes' Hidden Weight

Recent regulatory shifts allowing banks to hold more US treasuries and potentially crypto assets hint at risks beyond headline news.
Such rule changes could influence future banking crises and market stability.

INSIGHT

Shipping Data as Economic Signal

Shipping container volumes and prices have slumped drastically, signaling weakening US and global demand.
These shipping metrics are surprisingly strong economic predictors, reflecting real-time shifts beyond typical inflation or unemployment data.

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With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught out attention recently?

01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable

02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules

05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy

07:33 - Industry performance update

16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading?

27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following

37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment?

41:52 - Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different?

52:26 - Why are bond investors contrarian while equity investors extrapolate?

01:01:59 - "What if you missed the best days of a market?"

01:11:53 - Rounding up

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