Astral Codex Ten Podcast What Happened To NAEP Scores?
Mar 21, 2025
The discussion dives into the alarming drop in student proficiency revealed by recent NAEP scores, questioning whether this decline is solely due to COVID-19 lockdowns. The host reflects on their previous optimism about the long-term impacts of missing school years. They explore intriguing trends from 1998 to 2024 and consider whether educational challenges predate the pandemic. Graph analyses reveal that all student groups were affected, indicating potential systemic issues that transcend individual circumstances, prompting deep reflection on the future of education.
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Declining NAEP Scores
- National NAEP scores peaked mid-2010s and declined pre-COVID.
- California scores followed a similar trend but peaked later.
Questioning COVID Impact
- Scott Alexander questions the COVID learning loss narrative.
- He notes the downward trend began before COVID and questions if scores will recover by 2026.
School Reopening Impact
- States reopening schools fastest showed no improvement in NAEP scores.
- States that kept schools closed longest performed slightly better, unexpectedly.