Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch Why The China Trade Truce Is Unlikely to Last
Oct 31, 2025
In this discussion, Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior U.S. trade negotiator, shares insights on the recent Trump-Xi trade meeting. She highlights why the agreements are likely a temporary truce rather than a lasting deal, citing China's historical record of unmet commitments. The conversation dives into the U.S. gains on soybeans, the geopolitical impact of China's export controls on rare earths, and the risks of escalation if China fails to comply. Stewart also emphasizes the importance of multilateral deals to strengthen U.S. leverage against China.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Soybeans Return To The Table
- The U.S. secured renewed soybean purchases from China, a direct win for American farmers.
- China previously cut off soybean imports when U.S. tariffs began, hurting agricultural exporters.
China's Sweeping Rare-Earth Controls
- China's October rare-earth measures expanded licensing and applied extraterritorial reach to products made with Chinese-processed minerals.
- The move mirrored U.S. foreign-direct-product rules and alarmed global supply chains.
Global Rule To Avoid 'Being Singled Out'
- China's global application of export controls aimed to avoid appearing targeted but provoked international pushback.
- That backlash encouraged deeper cooperation between the U.S. and partners on minerals deals.