Foreign Policy Live Will the U.S. Attack Venezuela?
9 snips
Dec 19, 2025 
James Story, former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, provides a deep dive into the escalating tensions surrounding the country. He predicts an 80/20 chance of U.S. military action and explains how Venezuela's navy could spark naval confrontations. Story discusses the challenges of sanctioned ships and why the U.S. views migration and crime as primary factors in its policy. He also explores the complexities of regime change, potential successors to Maduro, and the implications of U.S. credibility in hemispheric affairs.
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High Odds Of Some U.S. Military Action
- James B. Story rates U.S. military action against Venezuela at roughly 80% likelihood.
- He warns Maduro escorting ships could raise the chance of miscalculation and conflict.
Oil Storage Limits Make A Blockade Unsustainable
- Venezuela's oil storage and production constraints limit how long a blockade can last.
- James B. Story says storage will fill quickly and fields can be damaged if pumping stops.
Migration And Crime Drive Washington's Calculus
- President Trump links migration and criminality as a driver for action on Venezuela.
- Story cautions the policy lacks coherence and could weaken regional intelligence sharing.