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That Trippi Show
Good news for Kamala? Trump's turnout problem? Bold predictions? With Tom Bonier
Nov 1, 2024
Tom Bonier, a data guru from Target Smart, dives into the latest trends in early voting and what they mean for Democrats and Republicans. He analyzes shifting voter dynamics in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, revealing unexpected Democratic leaning. The discussion covers volatile polling data and challenges the Trump campaign might face on Election Day. Bonier also shares bold predictions for upcoming races, shedding light on the unpredictable nature of voter behavior just days before the election.
47:53
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Quick takeaways
- Early voting trends indicate that Democrats are effectively engaging new voters, while Republicans struggle to expand their electorate beyond established supporters.
- The fluctuating nature of polling suggests underlying biases and uncertainties, potentially leading to unexpected results on Election Day for both parties.
Deep dives
Importance of Early Voting Analysis
Early voting analysis is highlighted as a critical element in predicting election outcomes. It is essential to compare early voting data against past performance to discern voter intensity and enthusiasm. In the 2020 election, the pandemic significantly shifted voting behavior, with a large percentage opting for early voting, while the numbers returned to more traditional patterns in 2022. This context is crucial for understanding how different demographic groups are participating in the current election cycle.
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