Moody's Downgrade and Tariffs Impact Markets

36 snips

May 20, 2025

Ed Yardeni, President at Yardeni Research, shares his insights on the implications of Moody's downgrade of U.S. debt and its potential impact on equity markets. He discusses the market's recent pause, the weight of tariffs on corporate profits, and the outlook for the S&P 500. The conversation also touches on the increasing concerns from global investors regarding U.S. Treasury holdings, strategic investment during economic uncertainties, and the shifting landscape of international attention towards European markets.

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INSIGHT

Bond Vigilantes Influence Tariffs

The bond market reacted strongly to tariff policies, forcing political reconsideration.
Bond vigilantes impacted President Trump's decision to postpone tariffs in April 2025.

INSIGHT

Tariffs Cause Stagflation Not Recession

Despite tariffs remaining, their moderation has reduced recession fears.
The economy may face brief stagflation with weaker growth and higher inflation.

ADVICE

Stock Market Investment Advice

Stay invested in the stock market despite uncertainties.
Avoid sectors like information technology, communication, industrials, and financials for now.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 20th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Ed Yardeni, president at Yardeni Research, joins for an extended discussion on the outlook for equities, his S&P target, and whether tariffs will weigh on corporate bottom lines. Asix-day winning streak in the S&P 500 is set to pause as investors bet that US stocks will lag the rest of the world. It comes as Hong Kong's pension fund managers are concerned about potential forced selling of their Treasury holdings due to Moody's downgrade of US debt, as they are only allowed to invest over 10% of their assets in Treasuries if the US has a AAA or equivalent rating.
2) Holger Schmeiding, Chief Economist at Berenberg, discusses UK-EU trade relations and the divergence of post-Soviet (lower case) liberalism and right-wing authoritarianism and their effects on European economies. It comes as European stocks are expected to outperform US stocks, driven by structural shifts such as higher investments in defense and infrastructure.
3) Angela Stent, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute and Georgetown professor, discusses the call between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin and what it. European leaders are disappointed after a phone call between Trump and Putin, feeling that Trump is disengaging from diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and leaving Ukraine and its allies on their own.
4) Dan Tannebaum, Partner at Oliver Wyman, reacts to the Trump-Putin call and talks about what options the president has for putting pressure on Russia, as well as what opening up trade to Russia would mean. President Trump's plan for Russia and Ukraine to negotiate directly on a framework for peace talks before a truce is in place is seen as allowing Putin to buy time, with Russia presenting maximalist demands in previous talks.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a NYT story on The US Open tennis tournament makeover and Bloomberg's story on Amazon tackling last place in the NFL ratings.

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