Episode 2312: Robert D. Kaplan on the decadence of Trump's America
Jan 21, 2025
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Robert D. Kaplan, a geopolitical expert and author, delves into the decline of American identity in the era of Trump, emphasizing the 'decadence' associated with imperial decline. He draws haunting parallels between today's America and historical precedents like Weimar Germany. Kaplan critiques the polarization of society, advocating for a return to classical liberalism to navigate the current landscape. He also touches on global crises, Europe's challenges with migration, and the intricate dynamics of the Ukraine conflict, highlighting the urgency of seeking peace.
Robert D. Kaplan argues that Donald Trump's inauguration symbolizes a troubling blend of wealth and power indicative of societal decadence and decline.
Kaplan suggests that the division of American society due to globalization threatens democratic stability, as it eliminates the political center and fosters polarization.
Deep dives
Trump's Inaugural Address and American Decline
Donald Trump's inaugural address promised a new golden age for America, declaring an end to American decline, although this claim is met with skepticism. Robert Kaplan highlights the presence of influential figures like Tim Cook, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos during the address, suggesting that their subservience to Trump signifies a troubling blend of money and power. This relationship may contribute to a cycle of decadence, where the concentration of wealth and influence leads to societal decline. Kaplan draws parallels to historical analyses of decline, emphasizing that such a transformation can signify a civilization’s maturation spiraling into decadence.
Decadence and Vitality in Civilization
Kaplan discusses the concept of decadence, stating that it is fundamental to understanding the trajectory of civilizations as they grow, mature, and eventually decline. He points out that while vibrancy and decadence can coexist, the cultural focus on style and superficiality often indicates the beginning of a downfall. This notion highlights a significant cultural shift, where the values that once propelled societal progress become overshadowed by a preoccupation with material success. Through historical references, he argues that understanding these phases can shed light on current societal dynamics and the shifting political landscape.
The Fragmentation of American Society
The podcast highlights Kaplan's view that globalization has bifurcated American society into two distinct halves, one thriving in a globalized environment while the other remains stagnant and struggling in traditional contexts. This division contributes to the political polarization seen today, as the Democratic Party shifts far left and the Republican Party moves toward a populist stance. Kaplan suggests that the erosion of a centrist political landscape ultimately threatens democratic stability, as elections become battlegrounds for survival rather than a reflection of varied choices. This fragmentation points to a deeper crisis in American identity, as regions become disconnected and misaligned on core issues.
The Role of Agency in Historical Forces
Kaplan challenges the deterministic views of history, emphasizing that individuals and their decisions significantly shape outcomes despite the weight of larger historical forces. He illustrates this idea by referring to the Weimar Republic, where different political choices could have changed the course of history and potentially averted the rise of authoritarian regimes. Highlighting the necessity of agency, he argues that even in times of upheaval, individuals can effect meaningful change through their actions. Thus, rather than succumbing to despair, there is potential for a resurgence in classic liberal values that prioritize individual voices amidst societal chaos.
With Trump’s inauguration today, are we really about experience a new “golden age” in America? No. Not at least according to the best selling writer Robert D. Kaplan, author of Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis (out next week), who argues that Trump's inaugural ceremony today, attended by fawning Silicon Valley moguls, exemplifies the moneyed “decadence” that often precedes imperial decline. A new book from Kaplan is always a big deal. But in today’s Trumpian America, Waste Land seems particularly prescient. The book draws heavily from historians of decline like Oswald Spengler and examines how globalization has split American society into two halves: a cosmopolitan, globally-oriented coastal elite and a poorer, more nationalistic hinterland. He argues that this division has eliminated the political center, burdening every election an existential quality. Despite the book's generally Spenglerian pessimism, Kaplan concluded with a note of hope, suggesting that a rediscovery of classical liberalism – characterized by constant questioning and lack of dogmatism – might help us navigate through today’s 21st century Waste Land of anarchic violence.
Robert D. Kaplan is the Robert Strausz-Hupé Chair in Geopolitics at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is the bestselling author of twenty-two books on foreign affairs and travel translated into many languages, including The Good American, The Revenge of Geography, Asia’s Cauldron, Monsoon, The Coming Anarchy, and Balkan Ghosts. For three decades he reported on foreign affairs for The Atlantic. He was a member of the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board and the U. S. Navy’s Executive Panel. Foreign Policy magazine twice named him one of the world’s “Top 100 Global Thinkers.”
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.
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