Listen as Dr. Fred Kagan, Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discusses the Russia-Ukraine war and Putin's hold on power. Topics include the mutiny and execution of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the current state of the war, the debate on providing weapons to Ukraine, and the importance of winter preparedness.
The assassination of Yevgeny Prigosian aimed to demonstrate Putin's strength and loyalty, weaken the Wagner group, and create potential divisions within the group.
Putin's eulogy for Prigosian highlighted the importance of loyalty to him and served as a warning against significant mistakes within his inner circle.
Deep dives
Assassination of Yevgeny Prigosian and its significance
The podcast episode discusses the assassination of Yevgeny Prigosian, a key figure in the Wagner group, and analyzes the significance of this event in the Russia-Ukraine war. Putin's decision to publicly execute Prigosian and his associates through a plane crash was seen as a response to the humiliation he suffered during the Prigosian mutiny. This move aimed to demonstrate Putin's strength and loyalty as well as to send a message to other members of his inner circle. The assassination also decapitated the Wagner group, thereby weakening its power and creating potential divisions within the group.
Putin's eulogy and the message of loyalty
Putin's eulogy for Prigosian highlighted his personal loyalty to Putin while acknowledging his mistakes. The emphasis on loyalty conveyed a clear message to others in Putin's inner circle that loyalty alone is not enough to ensure favor and protection. It also served as a warning that making significant mistakes can lead to severe consequences. The podcast suggests that Prigosian's actions were more about exerting pressure on Putin to replace certain military figures rather than attempting to overthrow Putin.
Deliberate Assassination and Public Execution
The assassination of Prigosian and his associates is described as a deliberate act by Putin, with the choice of a plane explosion serving as a highly public execution. The podcast speculates that the timing of the assassination and the image of a falling plane were not coincidental, but rather intentional staging by the Kremlin. The assassination aimed to avenge Putin's humiliation, assert his power, and send a warning to anyone contemplating challenging him.
Assessment of the Ukraine-Russia War and Western support
The podcast provides an assessment of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, with the Ukrainian forces making consistent gains in their counteroffensive. The discussion emphasizes the need for Western support in terms of arms transfers to Ukraine. Criticisms are raised about the limitations on Western production capabilities and the potential lack of sustained interest and support from Western political leaders. The podcast stresses the importance of planning for the long term and resourcing Ukraine adequately to sustain the fight through multiple seasons.
Special episode with Dr. Fred Kagan on the Russia-Ukraine war (and Putin's hold on power).
Fred is the Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. He is also working closely with the Russia team at the Institute for the Study of War. Fred is a former professor of military history at the US Military Academy at West Point. He completed his PhD in Soviet and Russian military history at Yale University.
The Critical Threats Project – https://www.criticalthreats.org/
Institute for the Study of War – https://understandingwar.org/
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