The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Venezuela's End: The Oil Question || Peter Zeihan
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Jan 7, 2026 Venezuela's future hinges on oil, but it's fraught with challenges. The Orinoco Belt holds promise yet demands significant investment and sophisticated extraction techniques. Historical ties with foreign firms have left a mark on PDVSA, but a brutal purge has led to a collapse in expertise. Restoring oil output will require massive funding and faces numerous hurdles. As the country grapples with these realities, the fate of its oil industry remains precarious.
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Oil Is Venezuela's Sole Economic Lever
- Venezuela's only realistic path to national reconstruction is through reviving its oil sector, because that's where all the money comes from.
- Rebuilding oil capacity requires massive investment, technical skill, and foreign partners, which Venezuela currently lacks.
Orinoco Bitumen Is Costly And Complex
- The Orinoco Belt produces bitumen that needs energy‑intensive steam injection and upgraders to become exportable crude.
- These processes make Orinoco the world's most expensive crude per barrel and technically demanding to operate.
PDVSA's Skill Drain After 2002 Purge
- U.S. majors and oil services firms built up Venezuelan expertise and trained PDVSA engineers over decades.
- After the 2002 coup and Chavez's purge, most trained engineers left and PDVSA's capabilities collapsed.