Was Bitcoin bringt - mit Niko Jilch Warum Bitcoin 2025 enttäuscht hat (und was jetzt kommt) | Fab
Dec 22, 2025
The discussion highlights how 2025 saw Bitcoin underperform compared to gold due to shifting market dynamics and institutional demand. The hosts analyze the MiCA regulation's impact on Europe and debate strategic Bitcoin purchases by central banks. They explore the role of energy policies, suggesting the U.S. could leverage Bitcoin geopolitically. The conversation emphasizes long-term strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging, while addressing potential tax risks in Germany. Ultimately, they advocate for self-custody and patience as key to navigating Bitcoin's future.
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Four-Year Cycle Losing Predictive Power
- The classic four-year Bitcoin cycle has weakened and may no longer drive price in the same predictable way.
- Fab and Niko attribute this to liquidity dynamics and broader institutional influence rather than halvings alone.
Institutions Drove 2025 Dynamics
- 2025 felt like the year institutions stepped in, and surprisingly gold outperformed Bitcoin.
- The guests link this to liquidity shifts and many investors preferring gold as a safe haven during systemic stress.
Bitcoin As A Geopolitical Trump Card
- The US is pursuing a strategic approach where Bitcoin becomes a geopolitical asset alongside energy policy.
- They discuss scenarios where sudden state purchases or strategic reserves could alter global monetary power.