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Confirm and Send - November 10, 2025

Nov 10, 2025
The market opens with strong gains, showcasing a significant rise in E-mini S&Ps and NASDAQ. Bitcoin makes a notable rebound above $106,000. Discussion dives into carrying costs across financial instruments, emphasizing their role in pricing. For managing tail risk, the hosts advocate for careful position sizing and defined-risk trades. They also highlight the benefits of wider option spreads over tight ones to boost profitability. Finally, they analyze the practicality of moving averages, debating their effectiveness as trading signals.
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INSIGHT

Strong Risk-On Market Confirmed

  • Equities and crypto rallied strongly while volatility collapsed under 19, confirming the move.
  • Bitcoin rebounded above $100,000 after trading below it last week, showing broad risk-on flows.
INSIGHT

Carry Exists Everywhere

  • Carrying costs exist across futures, options, and physical assets and include interest and opportunity costs.
  • Liquid markets price those costs in, so displayed prices already reflect carrying costs.
ADVICE

Limit Tail Risk By Sizing And Definition

  • Trade small enough so a tail event doesn't take you out of the game and allows you to keep trading the next day.
  • Use defined-risk trades to fully limit tail risk by defining your maximum loss on entry.
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