The Inside Story Podcast How will the US-China trade war impact the global economy?
Apr 4, 2025
John Gong, a seasoned professor at the University of International Business and Economics, and Robert Koepp, director of the Asia-Pacific Geoeconomics and Business Initiative, dive into the escalating US-China trade war. They explore how retaliatory tariffs are reshaping global economies and geopolitical alliances. Discussions include the impact on Southeast Asian nations, the role of online retailers like Shein, and the evolving relations with US allies such as South Korea and Japan. The potential long-term consequences on global stability and trust in U.S. alliances are also highlighted.
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Global Tariff Impact
- Trump's tariffs on China, initially kept by Biden, now target a wider range of countries.
- This expansion from targeting only China to a global scale has caused significant market turmoil.
China's Economic Resilience
- China's economy is now less reliant on US exports, down from 20% to under 15%.
- Even a complete loss of the US market, a worst-case scenario, would only be a bearable 1.5% GDP hit for China.
De Minimis Exception
- The 'de minimis' exception allowed tariff-free imports up to $800 via US Postal Service.
- This benefited Chinese online retailers like Shein and Temu, likely prompting the Trump administration's focus on this exception.