US inflation tops forecasts causing concerns about potential fed rate cuts; expectation of a spring comeback for NYC real estate; transforming the way EV batteries are built with Salidian technology; the importance of understanding cyber preparedness for finance leaders; analyzing the overreaction to recent CPI report and the performance of US and Japanese markets.
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Quick takeaways
The market's reaction to the recent CPI report, showing higher-than-expected inflation, is viewed as overdone, reflecting an excessive level of fear.
The recent volatility in the market is considered normal, with a constructive base built over the past couple of years and an overall upward trend expected.
Deep dives
Market reaction overdone to CPI report
The market's reaction to the recent CPI report, which showed higher-than-expected inflation, is being viewed as overdone. The market had been anticipating multiple rate cuts starting in the spring, but the Fed had already indicated in its messaging that three to four rate cuts were likely. The reaction reflects an excessive level of fear, and the underlying trend for the economy is still positive.
Volatility expected as market absorbs recent exuberance
The recent volatility in the market, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs and then experiencing a pullback, is seen as a normal market behavior. The charts show a constructive base has been built over the past couple of years, and the current pullback is viewed as a normal back-and-fill process. While volatility is expected throughout the year due to various factors, the overall trend is expected to be upward.
Bond market normalizing, short-end preferred
The recent increase in yields across the bond market is viewed as a normalization. The market had overreacted to the Fed's potential rate cuts, and the current pullback is expected to settle in the range of 4.5% on the 10-year Treasury yield. Short-duration bonds are preferred, especially for new cash, as there is further potential for rate escalation.
Increased exposure to Japanese equities
There is increased exposure to Japanese equities, considering the resurgence in the Japanese market. The focus is on high-quality active management, taking advantage of corporate governance improvements and activism efforts in Japan. Broad market ETFs are seen as an easy way to increase exposure to the Japanese market, as many global developed market funds have been underweight on Japan.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg News Economics Editor Molly Smith discusses the surprise jump in the January consumer price index. Lisa Lippman, Agent at Brown Harris Stevens, explains why she expects a spring comeback for NYC real estate. Solidion Technology CEO Jaymes Winters talks about transforming the way EV batteries are built. And we Drive to the Close with Carol Schleif, CIO at BMO Family Office. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.