In this episode, host Casey Stubbs interviews Tony Greer, the Editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter. Tony shares his background as an independent market analyst, discussing his experience as a commodity trader and equity salesman. He explains how he started writing a note to a client, which eventually led to the creation of the Morning Navigator newsletter with over a thousand subscribers. Tony also mentions his consulting business focused on risk management.
Tony explains that he tracks four main narratives: equities, bonds/interest rates, foreign exchange, and commodities. He discusses the current weak dollar theme in the foreign exchange market and the deflationary theme in both bonds and commodities. Tony also highlights the non-linear chaos in the stock market, where violent rotations and various sector drivers create a challenging trading environment.
The conversation dives deeper into the relationship between these narratives and how they impact each other. Tony emphasizes the importance of monitoring interest rates as a lead narrative, which influences the strength or weakness of the dollar. He explains that while rising rates typically strengthen the dollar, the current economic conditions and potential recession may create different scenarios. Tony doesn't believe in fixed rules about the dollar's behavior during specific economic periods but instead observes trends and market psychology.
Listeners gain insights into Tony's trading approach, where he looks for short-term trades based on themes in the FX market that can be expressed through passive sector ETFs in the US equity market. He also mentions the potential for longer-term trades that extend beyond the initial timeframe due to favorable market conditions. Tony concludes by highlighting the importance of having a trading plan and principles aligned with the underlying market drivers.
- Casey and Tony discuss their approaches to currency trading. Casey prefers to analyze weekly charts and ride the trend, while Tony emphasizes the importance of observing trends over various timeframes and identifying trend changes.
- Navigating the markets can be challenging and overwhelming, requiring careful observation and analysis. Tony highlights the significance of studying weekly and monthly closes and shares how he shares his observations in his newsletter and quarterly playbooks for his subscribers.
- Tony explains the importance of identifying pressure points on charts, such as moving averages and trend lines, and aligning them with macro factors to understand market trends better.
- They discuss the significance of major trading events, such as rate reversals, and how they can shape market trends. Tony shares an example of how he capitalized on the dramatic turnaround in rates after Silicon Valley Bank blew up, leading to a shift in his trading strategy.
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