33: Thomas Oatley – Complexity Theory and Political Economy 2.0
Mar 10, 2023
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In this podcast, Professor Thomas O'Lee discusses complexity theory and political economy, challenging traditional thinking. They explore the relationship between the climate crisis and energy policies, the role of complexity theory in international relations, and the concept of black swan events. The chapter also delves into information entropy, predicting the financial crisis, transitioning to green energy, and the limitations of state intervention.
The transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources faces structural and coalitional constraints that hinder progress, necessitating the formation of new interests to drive the green transition.
Complexity science offers a fresh perspective for understanding societal change, encouraging us to think beyond linear approaches and explore emergent characteristics and innovative solutions to complex challenges like climate change.
Deep dives
The Challenge of Transitioning from Fossil Fuels
The podcast episode explores the challenges of transitioning from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources. It highlights the structural and coalitional constraints that hinder this transition. The structural constraint refers to the societal dependence on existing energy systems and the difficulty of reimagining and reconstructing society to operate on alternative energies. The coalitional constraint stems from the vested interests of industries reliant on fossil fuels, creating opposition to change. The episode emphasizes the need for a new cluster of interests to displace carbon-intensive producers and drive the green transition.
The Influence of Complexity Science on Politics
The podcast episode delves into the influence of complexity science on politics and international relations. It discusses how complexity science offers a different framework for understanding societal change and prompts us to think beyond traditional linear approaches. It challenges the Newtonian mindset and encourages the exploration of emergent characteristics and notions of change in systems. By embracing complexity science, it is suggested that we can gain insights into the complex challenges we face, such as climate change, and find innovative solutions.
Rethinking Predictability and Systemic Change
The podcast episode questions the predictability of the future and addresses the notion of systemic change in complex civilizations. It explores the work of Joseph Tainter on civilizational collapse, highlighting the idea that civilizations collapse due to their own complexity. However, the podcast episode presents an alternative viewpoint, arguing that as societies transition away from fossil fuels, it does not necessarily lead to collapse but rather a different type of complexity. It promotes the importance of recognizing the need for new energy systems and the reimagining of society to enable this transition.
Empowering Individuals to Drive Change
The podcast episode emphasizes the role of individuals in driving change and addressing pressing global challenges. It suggests that waiting for the state to take action is not sufficient and highlights the need for individuals to take initiative. By embracing complexity science and recognizing our own responsibility, we can actively contribute to the transition to alternative energy systems. This empowerment encourages a shift away from paralysis caused by anxiety and towards action and innovative problem-solving.
Professor Thomas Oatley is the Corasaniti-Zondorak Chair of International Relations at Tulane University. He focuses his research and teaching on the intersection of American hegemony and international political economy (IPE). Widely regarded as a scholar at the leading-edge of IPE research, Thomas has in recent years adopted an explicit complex systems frame to undergird a powerful critique of orthodox IPE and international relations approaches to studying the global economy and world order.
In this conversation we talk about the value of thinking in terms of complex systems, why complexity theory remains on the margins of global political scholarship, the nexus between our global financial and energy systems, green industrial policy and much, much more.
Thomas can be found here: https://liberalarts.tulane.edu/departments/political-science/people/thomas-oatley
He tweets @thoatley
We discussed:
‘Energy and the Complexity of International Order’, Global Environmental Politics (2021): https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article-abstract/21/4/20/107829/Energy-and-the-Complexity-of-International-Order
‘Green industrial policy and the global transformation of climate politics’ (with B. Allan and J. I. Lewis), Global Environmental Politics (2021): https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/21/4/1/107853/Green-Industrial-Policy-and-the-Global
‘Toward a political economy of complex interdependence’, European Journal of International Relations (2019): https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354066119846553?journalCode=ejta
Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (1990): https://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/archaeology/archaeological-theory-and-methods/collapse-complex-societies?format=PB&isbn=9780521386739
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