Professor Ian Lustick, an expert in the Israel-Palestine conflict, discusses the history of the war in Gaza, the role of superpowers in ending wars, and President Biden's approach towards peace. The chapter also covers ads from Mint Mobile and Simply Safe, a new home security system, living off the grid, and Israel's war aims.
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Quick takeaways
Historically, Israel-Hamas wars end when a superpower, like the United States, directs Israel to stop, emphasizing the importance of a superpower's involvement in ending the conflicts.
The United States plays a crucial role in ending Israel-Hamas wars due to the influence of domestic politics, particularly the powerful Israel lobby and single-issue foreign policy lobbies, shaping American presidents' decisions and actions.
Deep dives
The role of superpowers in ending Israel-Hamas wars
Professor Iain Lustick, an expert on the Israel-Palestine conflict, emphasizes that Israel-Hamas wars historically end when a superpower, like the United States, directs Israel to stop. These wars do not end when Israel achieves its war aims. The involvement of a superpower is crucial, as it signals that national security interests are at stake. The United States has been a consistent supporter of Israel, but it also plays a significant role in ending the conflicts by exerting pressure on Israel. The professor highlights that the turning point is when the United States issues a red light to Israel, either through resolutions or direct communication.
The influence of domestic politics on US-Israel relations
Professor Lustick explains that one of the main reasons the United States plays a crucial role in ending Israel-Hamas wars is the influence of domestic politics. He compares the issues of Israel and Cuba, which are both outliers in international politics, with the United States having unique positions on these matters. The powerful Israel lobby in the United States, along with the influence of other single-issue foreign policy lobbies, such as the Cuba lobby, play a significant role in shaping the stance of American presidents. Domestic political considerations always weigh heavily on the president's decisions, even in the context of Middle Eastern wars.
President Biden's response and the potential for a ceasefire
The professor analyzes President Biden's response to the current Israel-Hamas conflict. He notes that initially, the United States green-lighted Israel's actions, but as the conflict continued, caution increased, symbolized by references to war crimes and international law. The Biden administration grew concerned about the possibility of an escalation involving Hezbollah in Lebanon. This concern shifted the administration's approach to urging caution and warning against civilian deaths. The professor suggests that a resolution to the conflict will most likely come when the United States perceives that the costs of pressuring Israel to stop outweigh the costs of allowing the war to continue.
Israel's war against Hamas has now been raging for over 100 days. According to Ian Lustick, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania, history tells us what it will take to end it.
This episode was produced by Isabel Angell and Amanda Lewellyn , edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard with help from Hady Mawajdeh and Haleema Shah, engineered by David Herman, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram.