Mid-Year Check-In with Group CIO Dan Ivascyn

Jun 23, 2025

Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO at PIMCO, dives into the evolving landscape of investment strategies amidst recent market upheavals. He discusses the implications of the "Fragmentation Era" on global markets and emphasizes the importance of recognizing cognitive biases in decision-making. Ivascyn highlights the U.S. fiscal sustainability, shared insights on bond market volatility, and the value of liquidity in investment strategies. With a focus on diversification and innovation, he provides a roadmap for navigating today’s complex financial terrain.

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INSIGHT

Fragmentation Era Changes Markets

We entered the "Fragmentation Era" where geopolitical forces now drive economic outcomes rather than vice versa.
This leads to less synchronized markets but creates attractive opportunities outside traditional investing paradigms.

ADVICE

Combat Noise with Structure

Recognize that emotional and political noise can impair good investment decisions.
Use structured forums and behavioral finance insights to maintain objective, disciplined investing.

INSIGHT

U.S. Fiscal Position Manageable

U.S. fiscal deficits remain high and politically unlikely to improve significantly soon.
However, the U.S. fiscal position remains manageable relative to history, allowing for attractive yields in intermediate-duration bonds.

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The “Fragmentation Era” is here (see our recent Secular Outlook piece), as trade barriers, geopolitics, and domestic fiscal dynamics lead global markets down increasingly divergent paths. Here to help us cut through the noise and find the signal, once again, is Dan Ivascyn, PIMCO’s Group CIO. Dan joined us at the start of the year, and we were thrilled to check in with him as we approach the midpoint of 2025. He provides a rundown of what’s changed—and what hasn’t—over the tumultuous intervening months, and shares his insights on where the economy, markets, and investment opportunities may be headed.

Part 1 - From January to Now - An Evolving Investment Paradigm

Part 2 - The State of U.S. Fiscal Sustainability

Part 3 - Economics Fundamentals and the Big Beautiful Bill

Part 4 - Credit - Avoid Complacency and Look to Consumers

Part 5 - Don’t Overcomplicate Liquidity

Part 6 - Conclusion: What is the Opportunity Set Today?

Related Resources:

Latest insights from PIMCO’s industry-leading experts, including Rich Clarida, Tiffany Wilding, and Libby Cantrill.

Our Cyclical Outlook – looking out 6-12 months: Seeking Stability

Our Secular Outlook – looking out 3-5 years: The Fragmentation Era

Take a look at PIMCO’s Behavioral Science Edge

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