The War on America’s 2024 Elections: How U.S. Adversaries Seek to Divide Americans and Undermine Trust
Oct 31, 2024
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Bradley Bowman, an expert on information warfare, joins cybersecurity guru Mark Montgomery, former Homeland Security undersecretary Suzanne Spaulding, and Russia analyst Ivana Stradner for a critical discussion on the integrity of U.S. elections. They dive into how China, Russia, and Iran exploit division among Americans while exposing specific tactics these adversaries use to erode public trust. The conversation emphasizes the need for robust cybersecurity measures and media literacy to combat the pervasive disinformation threatening American democracy.
Foreign adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran are exploiting societal divisions and misinformation to undermine trust in U.S. elections.
Enhanced vigilance by mainstream media and election officials has improved resilience against foreign influence and misinformation in recent elections.
Building societal resilience through civics education and community engagement is essential to counteract the effects of foreign disinformation campaigns.
Deep dives
U.S. Progress in Combating Election Interference
Recent advancements have been made in the U.S. to counter foreign interference in elections, reflecting a national commitment to democratic integrity. Following the aggressive tactics employed by Russia during the 2016 elections, the response has become more robust, with mainstream media now refraining from publishing compromised content that plays into adversaries' hands. For instance, when Iran attempted to hack the Trump campaign, the media did not disseminate the results, demonstrating increased awareness and resilience. Such vigilance was further highlighted when a fake video purportedly showing ballot destruction in Pennsylvania was swiftly debunked by local officials, showcasing the improving capacity to correct misinformation swiftly.
Ongoing Threats from Foreign Entities
Despite progress, persistent threats from foreign adversaries continue to undermine trust in the electoral process. A recently declassified report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) emphasizes the likelihood of foreign influence efforts extending beyond election day, with adversaries potentially inciting unrest in the aftermath. Specific instances, such as Russian intelligence attempts to recruit individuals for protests and Iranian efforts to fund pro-Palestinian demonstrations, underscore an ongoing strategy to destabilize civil discourse and exploit societal divisions. The manipulation of personal information to incite violence against state officials further exemplifies the dangers of foreign malign influence in U.S. democracy.
China's Tactical Influence Operations
China's tactics in influencing U.S. elections involve undermining confidence in democratic institutions while targeting down-ballot candidates to shift voter perceptions. Utilizing covert social media accounts, China seeks to portray the U.S. political system as corrupt and chaotic, thereby diminishing trust not only domestically but also in global forums. This approach aims to erode international faith in U.S. leadership capabilities, shifting global narratives in favor of authoritarian models. Such disinformation campaigns highlight the strategic intent behind China's interventions and the necessity for vigilance to counteract these operations.
The Role of Community and Education in Resilience
Building societal resilience against misinformation is critical to safeguarding democracy in the face of ongoing threats from foreign adversaries. Effective community engagement and education about civics and democracy can enhance public understanding of the electoral process and the influence of misinformation. It is suggested that significant investment in civics education could empower future generations to critically engage with information they encounter, making them less susceptible to foreign influence. Furthermore, encouraging a culture where citizens seek diverse news sources can counterbalance the echo chamber effects of partisan media.
The Necessity of a Coordinated National Response
A multifaceted approach involving various government agencies is crucial to counter foreign interference effectively. The need for reliable funding and support for agencies like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and global engagement initiatives cannot be overstated, as these organizations play vital roles in maintaining election security and public trust. Additionally, fostering international cooperation through strategic engagement and transparency initiatives can further enhance efforts to combat disinformation. By reinforcing democratic structures domestically and internationally, the U.S. can fortify itself against the persistent threats posed by adversarial nations.
While federal agencies and election officials repeatedly affirm the physical and cybersecurity of U.S. elections, a significant vulnerability remains — the public’s belief in the integrity of elections. Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran believe U.S. power presents a serious impediment to their ambitions and are taking concrete actions to target Americans. This is the latest battlefield of America’s adversaries, which are waging an ongoing and growing information war against Americans with the aim to divide and exacerbate existing tensions so that we are too distracted and weak to project U.S. power abroad.
What specific actions are China, Russia, and Iran taking to undermine trust in the coming election? And how should we respond? How do these latest actions fit into their broader information war?
FDD hosts a panel discussion featuring Suzanne Spaulding from the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Bradley Bowman, senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power and editor of Cognitive Combat; RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, senior director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation and co-author of an FDD memo on election interference; and FDD Research Fellow Ivana Stradner. The conversation will be moderated by Maggie Miller, cybersecurity reporter for Politico,with introductory remarks by FDD senior analyst on emerging threats Max Lesser.
