Which real estate markets are growing more rapidly in the US, and why? What will happen to construction costs given the on and off tariffs? Pike Oliver, author of Transforming the Irvine Ranch shares his insights.

Read the entire interview here: https://tinyurl.com/5fxk6ydm

Regarding markets from your newsletter, the few growing cities are Raleigh, North Carolina, Gainesville, Georgia, and smaller, large metro areas.

There are about 56 or so metropolitan areas and more than a million people in the USA, and the ones that are growing more rapidly now are the smaller ones, those that have a couple of million population. Raleigh and Gainesville would be an example of that. And even areas that are in the 500,000 to a million range, I think some of that has to do with housing affordability, and I think that also people just maybe wanting to be in a less congested environment, that has shown up to be a factor now. The larger regions, Southern California, the Bay Area on the West Coast, Seattle, New York, all the Boston to Washington corridor on the east coast, and Atlanta, they're growing at slower rates, and a large portion of those regions do present a housing affordability challenge. If you look at the percentage of household budgets that go to housing and transportation, it's a significant percentage. Can you manage your transportation cost? Maybe that'll be somewhat dependent on distance to work and commuting, but the big cost is having the vehicle, insuring the vehicle, and financing that. The one that you can manage is to go to a market that has much less expensive housing. If you're in a market that can offer you a $400,000 house, versus a market where it takes a million, that makes a big difference.

I wonder how the inflation will continue to make an impact on the bedroom communities?

That's a big question. The whole issue with potential tariffs. Now, I believe we're on again with some pretty significant tariffs on aluminum and steel, affecting Canada, Mexico and and certainly China. I think that's as I understand it, across the board, that'll have some impact. I think just the uncertainty will have some impact.

And then construction costs, my take on that is I don't see much abatement in that area. We're going to have, I think, continuing in Southern California, because of the fire effect, they'll be as significant and particularly on the labor side. And this also then relates to the issue of immigration enforcement in the construction industry, particularly the residential construction industry, there's a substantial percentage of undocumented people working in those areas. Again, an open question as to how much of that is going to translate into higher labor costs.

Looking ahead in 2025, people were saying, hold until 2025 and you'll be fine. And now, they move to 2026, I hear lenders are extending their loans to their existing clients based past 2025, where do you think we're going to be this year? Do you think it's a great or not so great time to invest in real estate?

It's always a good time if the characteristics of the individual property are great and if you can swing the equity or the debt to close the deal. As to whether there are a lot of real bargains, that doesn't seem to be the case, the only area where that seems to be a possibility is with office assets, but then you're taking on the challenge of occupying that space, or undertaking a residential conversion.

Pike Oliver

news.ares.org

pike@urbannexus.com

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