Guests Dana Peterson, Phil Orlando, Mohamed Younis, and Anna Ashton discuss topics such as US economic fragmentation, Fed rate hikes, GOP lineup, US-China relations, and export controls in China's technological development.
Consumer and sovereign debt in the US are at concerning levels, with rising interest rates making it challenging to service the debt.
There is significant fragmentation in the US economy, with different age and income groups responding differently to economic conditions.
Deep dives
Consumer and Sovereign Debt
According to Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, both consumer and sovereign debt in the US are at concerning levels. Credit debt for consumers has risen to pre-pandemic levels, causing an increase in delinquencies. Additionally, sovereign debt in the US is extremely elevated, and rising interest rates are making it even more challenging to service the debt. This is a cause for concern, especially as consumers may soon run out of excess savings and face the burden of student loan repayments.
Impact of Debt Payments on the Economy
As payments for credit card debt and student loans resume after being on pause due to the pandemic, it is expected to have a negative impact on the economy. Dana Peterson predicts that several tenths of GDP growth could be shaved off in October due to reduced consumer spending. The burden of higher debts and rising interest rates may lead consumers to be more cautious about spending on discretionary items, and this could affect consumer behavior and overall economic outlook.
Fragmentation in the US Economy
According to Dana Peterson, there is significant fragmentation in the US economy. Different age and income groups respond differently to the current economic conditions. This fragmentation is observed in consumer confidence, job losses, and industry performance. While industries that require physical presence for work are still hiring, sectors like tech, finance, and transportation are experiencing job losses. The lack of uniformity in economic conditions highlights the challenges faced in achieving overall economic harmony.
Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, says there's still quite a bit of fragmentation in the economy. Phil Orlando, Federated Hermes Chief Equity Market Strategist, expects one more quarter point hike from the Fed and than a potential pause that may "last a while." Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor-in-Chief, says nobody in the current GOP lineup is close to giving Trump "any kind of challenge." Anna Ashton, Eurasia Group Director of China Corporate Affairs and US-China, says US Commerce Secretary Raimondo's trip to China is "the most important visit we've had so far from a member of the administration." Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance