The Milk Road Show

Coinbase’s Q4 2025 Crypto Forecast: Macro Setups, ETH Demand & Altseason Signals w/ David Duong

11 snips
Aug 20, 2025
Guest
David Duong
David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase, dives deep into the current crypto landscape. He analyzes the Federal Reserve's policies and their potential impact on rate changes and market dynamics. Duong highlights rising institutional interest in Ethereum and its implications for retail investors. He delves into the anticipated altcoin season, discussing macroeconomic signals and liquidity trends. Get ready for insights on Ethereum's trading volumes and strategies for navigating the evolving crypto market!
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INSIGHT

Fed Cuts Still Expected This Fall

  • Coinbase still expects two Fed rate cuts in September and October and a continued disinflationary path.
  • The firm views the recent PPI surprise as muted in the Fed's preferred inflation measures and partly a risk-off excuse.
INSIGHT

Liquidity Lag Predicts September Breakout

  • Coinbase uses a custom global M2 index weighted toward crypto-relevant regions and finds a ~110-day liquidity lag.
  • They expect liquidity-driven market breakout starting in September if that lag holds.
INSIGHT

Money Market Cash Is A Hidden Fuel

  • Money market funds remain very large, indicating retail cash is still on the sidelines despite asset rallies.
  • When Fed cuts lower yields, retail cash may rotate into risk assets and drive wider participation.
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