Prof G Markets Doing the Math on Trump’s Economic Impact — ft. Justin Wolfers
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Jun 20, 2025 
Justin Wolfers, a public policy and economics professor at the University of Michigan, discusses the economic fallout from Trump’s policies. He critiques the GOP tax bill and examines the economic toll of ICE raids. Wolfers explains why tariff-driven inflation could harm the economy more than standard inflation, and he highlights the intricate links between taxation, entrepreneurship, and immigration. The conversation also touches on the complexities of trade wars and their impact on wages and prices.
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Risks of High U.S. Deficits
- US deficits are high outside recessions, reducing fiscal flexibility against future crises.
- Rising debt increases interest costs and risks a self-fulfilling crisis if lenders distrust repayment.
Reverse Robin Hood Tax Impact
- The GOP tax bill transfers wealth from the bottom 80% to the top 10%.
- Tariffs and cuts disproportionately hurt low-income earners while rich gain tax advantages.
Tax Where Incentives Matter Most
- Focus on taxing the working and middle class to incentivize work effectively.
- High-income earners' work effort is less sensitive to tax rate changes.