The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn't been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance.

Topics covered include:

What was the narrative and economic and financial performance from 1995-2001, 2002-2012, and 2012 -2024.
How the performance of the U.S. dollar impacted returns
Why did economic forecasters predict the U.S. national debt would be paid off in 2011, and why were they wrong?
Signs that the current economic and financial narrative is shifting.

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Show Notes

Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Outlook for the federal budget and implications for fiscal policy Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate January 25, 2001—The Federal Reserve Board

Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product—FRED Economic Data

Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers—FRED Economic Data

Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller—Princeton University Press

Donald Trump vs Mr Market by Tim Harford—The Financial Times

Tourism boycott? Europe travel to US drops in wake of Trump presidency by Talyta França & Alessio Dell'Anna, Mert Can Yilmaz—euronews

Trump’s Trade Offensive Threatens America’s Financial Primacy by Nick Timiraos, Jack Pitcher, and Chelsey Dulaney—The Wall Street Journal

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