

[Linkpost] “My P(doom) is 2.76%. Here’s Why.” by Liam Robins
Disclaimer: all beliefs here are mine alone, and do not necessarily reflect the beliefs of my employer or any organization I work with.
Summary: This is my best attempt to explain my beliefs about AI existential risk, leaving none of my assumptions unstated or unchallenged. I’m writing this not because I’m confident that I arrived at the right answer, nor because I think I’ve stumbled on an especially clever insight. I’m writing this because laying out my thought process in full detail can be a helpful tool for thinking clearly and having productive dialogues. If you disagree with any of the points I’ve made, then I encourage you to write your own P(doom) explanation in a similar style.
Introduction
I just came back from Manifest, where I had the privilege of participating in a live AI doom debate with Liron Shapira of the AI Doom [...]
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Outline:
(00:56) Introduction
(03:06) The 11 Claims
(03:10) 1. AGI isn't coming soon (15%)
(04:36) 2. Artificial intelligence can't go far beyond human intelligence (1%)
(06:10) 3. AI won't be a physical threat (1%)
(07:43) 4. Intelligence yields moral goodness (30%)
(08:18) 5. We have a safe AI development process (20%)
(10:25) 6. AI capabilities will rise at a manageable pace (N/A)
(10:37) 7. AI won't try to conquer the universe (50%)
(11:33) 7A: By default, AGI will not be truly agentic. (2%)
(12:41) 7B: By default, AGI will be aligned to human interests. (40%)
(13:52) 7C: By default, AGI will be misaligned but non-expansionary. (8%)
(17:00) 8. Superalignment is a tractable problem (20%)
(18:40) 9. Once we solve superalignment, we'll enjoy peace (80%)
(23:29) 10. Unaligned ASI will spare us (1%)
(24:58) 11. AI doomerism is bad epistemology (true, but mostly irrelevant)
(26:27) Multiplying the Numbers Together
(26:58) Other Considerations
(27:21) Humanity Won't Be Doomed is a Good Historical Heuristic
(28:37) Superforecasters Think We'll Probably Be Fine
(31:00) AI Developers and Top Government Officials Seem to Think We'll Be Fine
(34:06) Multiplying the Numbers Together (Again)
(34:33) Conclusion
The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:
June 12th, 2025
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hrMBpqmgxpLZPLeBG/my-p-doom-is-2-76-here-s-why
Linkpost URL:
https://thelimestack.substack.com/p/my-pdoom-is-276-heres-why
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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