Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Tiffany Wilding & Keith Lerner
Nov 13, 2025
Tiffany Wilding reveals that a government shutdown could cut Q4 GDP growth by up to 1.5%, but a recovery may be on the horizon. She also highlights how large refund checks will boost consumer spending in the first quarter. Keith Lerner shares insights on the global market, noting over 90% are above the 200-day moving average, indicating a strong uptrend. He discusses sector rotation away from tech and the rise of emerging markets, which are approaching all-time highs. The role of AI in news reporting is also explored.
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Shutdown Could Dent Q4 Then Rebound
- Tiffany Wilding says the recent government shutdown could shave 1–1.5% off fourth-quarter GDP and possibly produce a negative print.
- She expects activity to rebound and offset much of that in Q1 alongside large refund checks to households.
Refund Checks To Support Q1 Consumption
- Tiffany Wilding highlights large refund checks coming in Q1 as a material support to consumption and growth.
- She views those refunds plus reopened government activity as offsetting forces into early next year.
Host's Personal AI Toolbox
- Tom Keene shares personal use of AI tools like Google Gemini and Perplexity to become smarter daily.
- He credits Tom Secunda for recommending Perplexity and says it improves his work at Bloomberg.