Positioning for Uncertainty: 2025 Asset Allocation Perspectives/Outlook

In this latest episode of CIO Perspectives, Sid Ahl, Co-CIO of Private Client, Endowments and Foundations at Brown Advisory, conversed with Paul Chew, Firm Chief Investment Officer and Kif Hancock, CIO International. They analyze the 2025 Asset Allocation Outlook, noting market volatility and the significant shifts since the US elections. The conversation highlights initial investor enthusiasm about deregulation and tax cuts under the new administration, which quickly shifts to concerns over tariffs and cost-cutting. Paul emphasizes the market's current uncertainty, noting rapid changes in investor sentiment and significant declines in major tech stocks. Kif provides insights into European market dynamics, noting increased investment due to structural reforms and cheaper valuations compared to the US. Sid and Paul also discuss the implications of AI advancements, particularly the impact of the Chinese company DeepSeek on tech stocks. The dialogue concludes with reflections on fixed income markets, US fiscal concerns and opportunities in private markets. Overall, this discussion underscores the need for diversification and adaptive strategies in the current economic landscape.

Disclosures:

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect those of Brown Advisory. These views are not intended to be and should not be relied upon as investment advice and are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. The information provided in this podcast is not intended to be and should not be considered to be a recommendation or suggestion to engage in or refrain from a particular course of action or to make or hold a particular investment or pursue a particular investment strategy, including whether or not to buy, sell or hold any securities mentioned. It should not be assumed that investments in such securities have been or will be profitable. To the extent specific securities are mentioned, they have been selected by the author on an objective basis to illustrate views expressed in the commentary and do not represent all the securities purchased, sold or recommended for advisory clients. The information contained herein has been prepared from sources believed reliable but is not guaranteed by us as to its timeliness or accuracy and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data. This piece is intended solely for our clients and prospective clients, is for informational purposes only and is not individually tailored for or directed to any particular client or prospective client.

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“Magnificent Seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, NVIDIA and Tesla)

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Index Information:

The S&P 500® Index represents the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity markets and consists of approximately 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Criteria evaluated include market capitalization, financial viability, liquidity, public float, sector representation and corporate structure. An index constituent must also be considered a U.S. company. These trademarks have been licensed to S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. S&P, Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P and their respective affiliates (collectively "S&P Dow Jones Indices") do not sponsor, endorse, sell, or promote any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index. This document does not constitute an offer of services in jurisdictions where S&P Dow Jones Indices does not have the necessary licenses. S&P Dow Jones Indices receives compensation in connection with licensing its indices to third parties.

The MSCI ACWI Index captures large and mid-cap representation across Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The Index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. MSCI Indexes and products are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries. The MSCI ACWI captures large and mid-cap representation across Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. MSCI and other MSCI brands are trademarks, service marks or registered trademarks of MSCI Group.

Terms and Definitions:

Alpha is a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. Alpha takes the volatility (price risk) of the fund and compares its risk-adjusted performance to a benchmark index. 

Portable Alpha is an investment strategy that combines market exposure with a separate investment strategy to generate returns.

Alpha Extension strategies are a form of high conviction investing, boosting active exposure and potentially offering more flexibility in portfolio construction.

Volatility refers to the degree of price fluctuation of an asset or market over a specific period, essentially measuring how much and how quickly prices move up or down.

Diversification in investing is a strategy to reduce risk by spreading investments across different asset classes.

Alternative Investments are financial assets that do not fit into the conventional equity/income/cash categories. Private equity or venture capital, hedge funds, real property, commodities, and tangible assets are all examples of alternative investments.

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is a US federal agency responsible for protecting human health and the environment.

Defensive Stocks are stocks that provide consistent dividends and stable earnings regardless of the state of the overall stock market, typically including utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples.