Politics Now Is a rate hike now imminent?
9 snips
Jan 28, 2026 Nationals leadership turmoil and a spill motion in Queensland create fresh coalition instability. December inflation surprised at 3.8%, ramping up pressure on the RBA and markets for a rate rise. Discussion covers trimmed mean readings, budget implications, political fallout, and possible renegotiation of the coalition partnership.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Inflation Spike Raises Rate-Hike Odds
- December inflation hit 3.8%, well above the RBA target band of 2–3% and higher than expected.
- The trimmed mean at 3.3% and a 0.9% quarterly read make a rate hike next week look very likely.
Market Prices A Likely RBA Move
- Markets price better than a 70% chance of an RBA rate rise next week given the stickier inflation.
- Jim Chalmers has begun preparing politically for that looming reality.
Use Budget Levers To Ease Inflation
- Reining in public spending could help reduce inflationary pressure ahead of the May budget.
- Jim Chalmers and the ERC should consider tighter spending discipline to lower inflation risks.