Swamp Notes: How the Middle East conflict is shaping the election
Oct 5, 2024
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Felicia Schwartz, a U.S. foreign affairs correspondent for the Financial Times, and Derek Brower, the political news editor, dive into the escalating Middle East conflict and its ripple effects on the U.S. election. They discuss the Biden administration's struggle to mediate peace amid rising tensions. The conversation highlights how candidates' stances on foreign policy shape voter sentiment, particularly in the Arab American community. They also analyze the implications of military aid to Israel and its timing in relation to the election.
The Biden administration's struggle to influence the Israel-Hamas conflict is hindered by Biden's pro-Israel stance and Netanyahu's unpopularity.
The ongoing violence in the Middle East and rising oil prices pose significant risks to the U.S. presidential election dynamics.
Deep dives
Challenges of U.S. Influence in the Middle East
The Biden administration has struggled to effectively influence the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, facing numerous complexities. A primary challenge stems from Israel's status as a sovereign state and its reluctance to accept American pressure, particularly given Prime Minister Netanyahu's strained domestic position and unpopularity. Additionally, Biden's strong pro-Israel stance and reluctance to leverage military aid complicate efforts for a ceasefire and diplomatic resolution. Consequently, the administration's ability to push for peace is limited, as there exists a perception that the U.S. cannot want a resolution more than Israel itself does.
Domestic Political Calculations Impacting Foreign Policy
The U.S. political landscape significantly influences how leaders navigate foreign policy, particularly regarding support for Israel amidst rising tensions. Even as some voters express dissent against American foreign policy, many still view a strong alliance with Israel as crucial, especially in an election year. The presence of a large Arab American community in battleground states like Michigan poses a challenge, yet political calculations suggest that support for Israel remains prevalent. This dynamic fosters a complex atmosphere, where domestic interests often overshadow international considerations, leading to cautious approaches from political leaders.
The Potential for Domestic Consequences from Rising Conflict
Escalating violence in the Middle East, combined with its impact on oil prices, poses significant risks to the upcoming U.S. presidential election. An increase in oil prices could translate to higher gasoline costs for American consumers, an issue that historically drives voter concern and dissatisfaction. As tensions escalate and the potential for direct U.S. involvement looms, political leaders fear the ramifications of a significant incident that could sway public opinion. In this context, Trump is primed to leverage any perception of chaos to bolster his appeal to voters, positioning himself as a strong leader in contrast to Biden's approach.
The Biden administration has tried and failed to contain fighting in the Middle East over the past year - and now, the conflict is close to spiralling into all-out war. The FT’s US foreign affairs and defence correspondent Felicia Schwartz and US political news editor Derek Brower join this week’s Swamp Notes to explain what Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are telling voters they’ll do to end the conflict. Credit: USA Today
Swamp Notes is produced by Ethan Plotkin, Sonja Hutson, Lauren Fedor and Marc Filippino. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson.