Politics Weekly UK Labour collapse in Caerphilly: the byelection that points to the future of UK politics
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Oct 22, 2025 Labour's loss in Caerphilly marks a significant shift in UK politics, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru seizing votes. Local frustrations over health services and the cost of living reveal deep community divisions. The influence of Brexit and immigration further complicates the political landscape. Meanwhile, issues surrounding the grooming gangs inquiry are causing turmoil, with survivor resignations highlighting serious concerns. Labour's deputy leadership race concludes amid scrutiny of leadership strategies and implications for the party's future.
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Labour Vote Collapse Signals Polarisation
- John Harris observed Labour's vote collapsing in Caerphilly with Reform and Plaid surging in a binary, culture-war style contest.
- He warned this polarised dynamic, amplified by social media, may foreshadow the next general election.
Tactical Voting And Turnout Matter
- Kieran Stacey noted Reform's poll surge could cause tactical consolidation around Plaid by those opposing Reform.
- He highlighted turnout of non-traditional voters as a key variable that could swing tight contests.
Structural Roots Of Labour's Decline
- Harris argued long-term drivers undercut Labour heartlands: loss of mines, unions and non-conformist churches eroded their traditional base.
- He suggested structural decline made the party vulnerable to rapid collapse once local conditions shifted.