Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, discusses market volatility, the upcoming Fed meeting, and Nvidia's earnings release. The speakers also talk about potential downside risks, Bitcoin's outlook, legal uncertainties in crypto, and Jay Powell's motives to calm the markets.
Nvidia's stock performance reflects its status as a macro asset and its association with the AI narrative.
The rise in bond yields, driven by factors such as Japan's yield curve control tweak, may impact equities markets.
Deep dives
Nvidia's Role as a Macro Asset and AI Narrative
The podcast episode discusses how Nvidia's performance in the stock market has raised questions about its status as a macro asset and its representation of the AI narrative. The episode highlights that Nvidia's earnings report in May marked the beginning of its outperformance as the AI frenzy took hold. While other semiconductor companies have struggled to see earnings growth from AI, Nvidia's stock has benefited from the anticipation of future AI-related earnings. The episode suggests that Nvidia's stock may experience a sharp move when it reports earnings, with various price action scenarios and potential trading strategies outlined.
Rising Bond Yields and their Implications
The episode delves into the relentless rise in bond yields and the potential reasons behind it. The discussion notes that the yield on 10-year treasuries has reached a 16-year high, highlighting a clear trend towards post-crisis high territories. Japan's yield curve control tweak is identified as a catalyst for the acceleration in bond yields. The episode explores the notion that the significant movement in yields is not solely driven by Japan, given that yields in the U.S. are going even higher. The implications of rising yields on the equity market are also mentioned, with a suggestion that a sustained break in bond yields above a certain level may cause concern in equities.
The Crypto Market Outlook
The podcast episode provides an outlook on the cryptocurrency market, focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum. The discussion emphasizes the potential positive medium-term prospects for Bitcoin due to the halving cycle, potential approval of a BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, and increasing institutional interest. However, short-term price action is discussed, highlighting recent downside price pressure on Bitcoin and the potential for a short squeeze if key levels are breached. Ethereum is also mentioned, with the observation that its volatility has traded differently from Bitcoin this year. The episode explores the role of institutional investors in driving the volatility and prime the market for potential rate moves.
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Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the recent surge in market volatility and what to expect from central banks as the Fed prepares to meet in Jackson Hole. Plus, Imran will share his perspective on what Nvidia's earnings release will mean for the technology sector and the broader market.