Can You Predict an Election?

Sep 5, 2024

Nate Silver, a renowned U.S. election forecaster and statistician, shares his journey from poker professional to political analyst. He discusses insights from his new book, 'On the Edge,' and reflects on the accuracy of his election predictions. They delve into the significance of polling data for the 2024 presidential race and the impact of voter motivations. The conversation also humorously examines debate dynamics and the critical role of rules in shaping candidate performances. Join them for an intriguing exploration of risk-taking in predictions and politics!

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Intro

00:00 • 2min

Polling Insights and Election Predictions

01:30 • 18min

Navigating AI: Progress and Perils

19:29 • 4min

Risk and Reward in Sports Betting and Investments

23:49 • 2min

Election Predictions and Debate Dynamics

25:22 • 3min

Election Coverage Plans and Special Offers

28:07 • 2min

This week is all about predictions, polling and risk taking - what do current polls tell us about who might win the 2024 presidential race? We get a behind the scenes look at how statisticians make their predictions, and how accurate they are. Our guest Nate Silver developed a forecasting system which correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 out of 50 states in 2008, and all 50 states in 2012. He also talks to Marianna and Sarah about his new book on risk - On the Edge - and his journey from professional poker playing to politics.

HOSTS: Sarah Smith, BBC North America Editor Marianna Spring, BBC Disinformation & Social Media Correspondent

GUEST: Nate Silver, U.S. election forecaster and stastician. Founder of FiveThirtyEight and the Silver bulletin, and author of On The Edge.

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This episode was made by Keiligh Baker with Purvee Pattni, Catherine Fusillo and Claire Betzer . The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The series producer is Purvee Pattni. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

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