Welcome to KAOS THEORY — a podcast collaboration between Grant Williams and me that focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world.

11/9/24: Episode 8 — Barry Strauss

History might not always repeat, but it certainly rhymes.

Internal divisiveness, external threats, border crises, epidemics, inflation/currency debasement, wealth inequality — these challenges all might sound recent and familiar, but they faced also Ancient Rome.

Barry Strauss, best-selling author of many books on ancient history as well as Senior Fellow at Hoover and Professor Emeritus at Cornell, shares lessons of resiliency and longevity from Ancient Rome.

Barry Strauss is a Corliss Page Dean Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution as well as the Bryce and Edith M. Bowmar Professor in Humanistic Studies Emeritus at Cornell University.

Strauss is a recognized authority on the subject of leadership and the lessons that can be learned from the experiences of the greatest political and military leaders of the ancient world (Caesar, Hannibal, Alexander, among many others). These lessons apply to business and government leaders of today who are faced with complex issues that are both challenging and often defy easy solutions. In addition to writing eight books, Strauss has spoken at the Hoover Institution, the Center for European Policy Analysis and many universities, institutes and war colleges here and abroad as well as for AXA Investment Managers and Cornell Executive Business Education. His articles have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post and the L.A. Times. Most recently, Strauss has been interviewed on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, A&E, the History Channel, the BBC and PBS.

This episode has been long in the planning, and Grant and I are thrilled to finally welcome Barry Strauss to Kaos Theory to discuss the lessons of Ancient Rome as they pertain to modern day Geopolitics.

Where you can find Barry Strauss:

Website: https://barrystrauss.com/

Amazon Store: https://www.amazon.com/stores/Barry-Strauss/author/B0045ANWJM?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1&qid=1731250431&sr=8-1&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/barrystrauss.author

X: https://x.com/barrystrauss

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-strauss-8848702/

Show Notes:

I usually don’t do this, but because I’m a huge fan of Roman history, I thought I would provide the outline from my show preparation notes for those of you interested.

We covered a lot of topics (boldfaced) but not all of the topics below, and perhaps we will get Barry back in the future to delve a bit deeper:

* MOTIVATION - What can Ancient Rome teach us about today?

* Defining “Ancient Rome”

* End of Republic: 27 BC

* Constantine the Great 306 AD

* End of Western Empire 476 AD

* Sack of Constantinople 1204 AD

* End of Byzantine Empire 1453 AD

* Reasons for Longevity

* Role of Institutions/Succession Mechanisms

* Institutions

* Byzantine Empire is example on the resilience of the structure

* Education

* Pragmatism

* Role of Leadership

* Antiquitas podcast: “Augustus = Clausewitz in a toga”

* Ten Caesars list

* Role of Geography/Borders

* Importance of Geography

* US much better than Ancient Rome

* Naval supremacy – Highlight The War That Made the Roman Empire and the Battle of Actium

* Borders

* Hadrian’s Wall / Antonine Wall

* Aurelian Walls

* Theodosian Walls

* Role of Climate Change/Disease

* Antonine Plague

* Late Antique Little Ice Age during 3rd Century

* 536 AD Climate Catastrophe causing GLOBAL COOLING

* Massive volcanic event

* Justinianic Plague

* Crop patterns provoking steppe tribe migrations

* Barry’s Theory: US is extension of British Empire

* One political system is so strong and it broke off and remade itself

* Rome: Republic -> Empire

* US: Empire -> Republic

* “Messy” Democracy or Benevolent Autocracy – False Choice?

* PARALLELS – Where are we today?

* Late Republic Analogs:

* Marius vs. Sulla Civil War

* Gracchi Rise of Populism

* Caesar – Rise of Autocracy

* Many fear Trump as a Caesar character

* Early/Mid Empire Analogs:

* Expansionist vs. Settled Empire

* Augustus -> Trajan: Expansionist?

* Hadrian and on: Isolationist?

* Parallels to Globalism vs. Isolationism shift today

* End of Pax Romana Analogs:

* Travails of Marcus Aurelius – Foreshadowing?

* Plague, Invaders on 2 fronts, Insurrection

* Crisis of the 3rd Century

* Parallel Issues:

* Widespread epidemic/plague

* Internal divisiveness

* Multiple external threats

* Porous borders leading to building of walls

* Inflation/Currency Debasement

* Nero’s spending programs and debasement

* Vespasian’s fiscal prudence gives hope

* Debasement continues under Pius/Marcus Aurelius and later

* Wealth Inequality

* Great wealth inequality by Trajan’s time despite Vespasian fiscal prudence

* Leaders

* MK: Trump reminds me of Aurelian

* Barry: Trump reminds me of Diocletian

* Later (Byzantine) Empire Analogs

* Challenges during Justinian’s reign in 6th Century

* Post-Basil II decline

* 11th Century decline leading to Crusades and Sack of Constantinople

* LESSONS FOR TODAY

* Antiquitas Comparisons of Leaders

* Augustus - George Washington/Steve Jobs

* Tiberius - John Adams/Tim Cook

* Obama/Trump parallels?

* Barry: Don’t underestimate the resilience of the US

* Lessons for today’s US/China Great Power Competition?

* Antiquitas: Podcasts on War

* Thucydides

* Sun Tzu

* Clausewitz

* CURRENT PROJECTS

* Hoover Fellow / Research

* Antiquitas Podcast

* Recent Books

* Ten Caesars

* The War That Made The Roman Empire

* Jews vs. Rome (coming August, 2025)

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Let's Try This Again | Exodus 34: 10-35