Strategic foresight capabilities in a changing security context

The global security environment is in a state of flux. Not only is Europe contending with the kinetic threat posed by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, but emerging threats – including climate change, AI, cyber, quantum computing, food and water shortages, and advanced robotics – are increasingly becoming threat multipliers. In this context, strategic foresight has become an important capability for governments and government institutions to enable informed and better decision-making. This panel discussion, which is jointly hosted by the IIEA and Deloitte, aims to provoke an open discussion about the present and future threat environments and to reflect on how organisations can best develop and utilise strategic foresight capabilities to navigate a changing, contested, and challenging security context. About the Speakers: Dr Raluca Csernatoni is a Fellow at Carnegie Europe where she specialises in European security and defence, as well as emerging disruptive technologies. Csernatoni is currently a guest professor on European security and counterterrorism at the Brussels School of Governance and its Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy, at Vrije Universiteit Brussels in Brussels, Belgium; Dr Florian Klein founded and leads the Centre for the Long View (CLV) network, which is Deloitte’s global centre of excellence for scenario planning and AI-enabled sensing. Florian has authored several books on mega trends and on designing strategic decision systems; Dr Eamonn Noonan of the EPRS Policy Foresight Unit has been involved in the inter-institutional ESPAS network (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System) since 2015. He recently returned from an EU Fellowship at St. Antony’s College Oxford. As an Irish diplomat, he had postings to Luxemburg and Norway. He has studied in Florence, Mainz and Cork.