Capitalmind Podcast Will the U.S. Market Crash in 2026?
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Nov 11, 2025 Deepak Shenoy, founder of Capitalmind and a seasoned investor, reflects on his market predictions over 17 years, including notable successes like forecasting the 2008 crash. He discusses why crashes often arise when cash sits on the sidelines and parallels between today’s AI hype and the 2000 dot-com bubble. Shenoy explores the challenge of predicting real estate and gold markets, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of crowd behavior. His insights on interest rate cycles reveal why predicting them may be easy, yet profiting from them is a different story altogether.
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Two Types Of Market Downturns
- Crashes come in two forms: short corrections and deep crashes caused by leverage-driven cascades.
- Today's market resembles 2000-style tech euphoria, not 2008's leverage collapse.
AI Funding Can Manufacture Fragile Revenue
- AI-driven revenue loops can manufacture growth when firms invest in each other.
- That cascade risks valuations collapsing once manufactured revenue stops flowing.
Sideline Cash Fuels Bubbles, It Doesn't Save You
- Cash on the sidelines is often a feature of bubbles, not a protection.
- Sideline cash tends to buy at the wrong time and may exacerbate crashes.