Will the US consumer hold up in 2026?

The US consumer showed notable resilience over the holiday period, with retail sales and e-commerce activity remaining robust. Yet, beneath the surface, sentiment surveys signal caution, as consumer confidence hovers near multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, the primary question is whether strong spending can persist as households navigate inflation fatigue, policy changes, and widening economic bifurcation.

In Episode 79 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and US Cosmetics, Household, Personal Care & Beverages Research Analyst Lauren Lieberman debate the split between hard spending data and soft sentiment indicators. They explore the rise of value-focused shopping, the expansion of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) into essentials, and the outsized role of upper-income cohorts in driving aggregate demand.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on US consumer strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

1. 26 'What Ifs' for 2026
2. 2026 Outlook: Riding the Waves, but Still Far from Shore