Central banks in major economies have repeatedly misread inflation trends by relying on models that omit a fundamental economic lever: the money supply. In this episode, economist Steve Hanke offers a detailed critique of prevailing post-Keynesian frameworks and the policy missteps that have followed. Drawing on historical and current data, Hanke underscores the predictive power of the quantity theory of money, a model largely excluded from central bank thinking, and explains how ignoring this leads to erroneous inflation forecasts and misguided interventions.

The discussion outlines how inflation, often attributed to exogenous shocks such as supply chain disruptions or geopolitical events, is more reliably explained by changes in the money supply. Hanke presents evidence that inflation today is the result of decisions made one to two years prior, making it critical to focus on monetary trends rather than short-term data fluctuations. He further contrasts U.S. and Chinese monetary responses, highlighting how both under- and over-corrections in money supply growth have resulted in either recessionary pressures or deflation.

Key insights from the episode include:

- The quantity theory of money remains one of the most reliable frameworks for anticipating inflation, yet is absent from mainstream economic models used by central banks.

- Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, rising or falling primarily in response to shifts in the money supply, not due to external shocks, which only affect relative prices.

- U.S. monetary policy is currently on a path toward recession, not inflation, due to anemic money supply growth since 2022, a trend Hanke predicts will continue unless reversed.

- Regime uncertainty, policy volatility that undermines business investment, amplifies economic stagnation. Drawing parallels to the New Deal era, Hanke warns that unclear or shifting fiscal and regulatory rules will delay recovery even further.

- Most of the money in circulation is created by commercial banks, not central banks. Post-2008 regulations have constrained these institutions, diminishing their role in supporting economic growth.

Taken together, these points call for a recalibration of macroeconomic policy, placing money supply at the center of analysis and re-empowering commercial banks to function as essential components of the financial system. For senior leaders navigating strategic decisions, the episode provides a timely and data-grounded lens on the structural drivers shaping inflation, recession risks, and economic stability.

Get Steve’s book here: https://shorturl.at/t5uDw

Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System

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