Episode 1359: PODCAST: "Can we stop pretending that key economies are fundamentally strong? They are not."

• China is flooding the global polypropylene market due to weaker domestic demand from demographics and real estate issues.
• This oversupply is disrupting global chemical markets and pressuring other producers worldwide.

The chemical industry, acting as a leading economic indicator, is signaling a severe crisis across major economies like Europe, the US, China, and the UK. Despite optimistic reports, fundamental weaknesses driven by oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and economic mismanagement are forcing plant closures and project freezes, such as INEOS shutting its phenol plant in Germany and Dow halting a feedstock project in Canada.

China’s surge in polypropylene exports highlights demand collapse at home due to demographics and real estate troubles, flooding global markets and disrupting other regions. Trade barriers and tariffs, such as the US imposing 20% tariffs on Vietnam, further strain global trade and economic growth.

Furthermore, long-term issues like the US Social Security trust fund running out by 2030 combined with cutbacks in international aid worsen the outlook. CEOs now face multiple urgent challenges—from immediate financial hemorrhaging to climate risks—while political inertia maintains the risk of economic collapse rather than recovery.

• The chemical industry signals a significant global economic crisis, contrary to optimistic economic narratives.
• Plant closures in Europe, including top facilities, highlight deep economic weakness not widely recognized.