The Macro Dirt Podcast LIBERATION DAY MARKETS
Apr 3, 2025
Tony and Jared dive into the intriguing world of market movements and unpredictability. They dissect the shifts in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, with a keen eye on upcoming events like 'Liberation Day.' A nostalgic discussion shifts to muscle cars versus electric vehicles, highlighting personal preferences amid infrastructure challenges. They also delve into gold's investment dynamics and its connection to budget deficits. Finally, they mix in baseball commentary, reflecting on player personas and nostalgic stadiums, all while handling the chaos of content overload.
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Market Trend
- The market shows a consistent pattern: stocks down, bonds up, and the dollar down.
- This trade has been profitable for months, but dollar positioning is now neutral, even slightly short.
Copper Trade
- Copper was overbought and needed a correction.
- Consider going long on copper again around 95.25 on the LME.
Tariff Impact on Inflation
- Tariffs are not inflationary; they're playing out deflationarily.
- This contradicts many analysts' predictions of tariff-driven inflation.