FiveThirtyEight Politics How RFK Jr.'s Exit Changes The Race
Aug 26, 2024
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent presidential candidate who recently withdrew from the 2024 race, discusses the implications of his exit and his surprising endorsement of Donald Trump. The hosts explore how this shift could realign the voter landscape and analyze polling trends post-convention. They also delve into the complexities of campaign strategies, examining how Kennedy's departure might influence Kamala Harris's polling and the broader electoral dynamics. The conversation reveals insights into the effects of third-party candidacies and their impact on major party races.
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Convention Bounce Uncertainty
- Assessing the impact of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) on Kamala Harris' polling numbers is difficult.
- Limited post-convention polls make it hard to isolate the DNC's effect, with some data suggesting a continuation of pre-existing trends.
Impact of DNC Messaging
- Early data from polls conducted during the DNC suggest a potential rise in support for Democrats, but the extent to which this can be attributed to the convention remains unclear.
- Messaging and median voter politics in prime time might influence public opinion.
Interpreting Polling Trends
- Shifts in the generic ballot polling and Harris' favorability ratings may indicate a positive trend for Democrats.
- However, it is too early to determine if this trend will persist, as Republicans actively work to define Harris negatively.