Bloomberg China economist discusses LPR changes, Japan-China stock comparison, and Capital One's purchase of Discover in a $35 billion deal. Insights on China's economy, COVID's impact on consumer behavior, and stock price movements in the credit card industry.
China's recent rate cut aims to stimulate housing market, but faces challenges due to weak sentiment and oversupply.
Contrast between Japanese stability and Chinese volatility in markets highlights investor shift towards Japan for growth opportunities.
Deep dives
China's Mortgage Rate Cut May Have Limited Impact on Housing Market
The recent 25 basis points cut in China's five-year loan prime rate (LPR) was met with mixed reactions in the market. While it was not a big surprise, the extent of the cut was greater than expected. Analysts believe that this cut, which affects the mortgage rate, aims to stimulate China's housing market. However, there are doubts about its effectiveness due to weak sentiment in the market, especially in lower-tier cities, and oversupply in the housing market. Furthermore, banks are concerned about the narrowing of their interest margins as a result of the rate cut.
Potential Consequences for Banks and the Economy
The rate cut has raised concerns among banks about their narrowing interest margins. While some bankers worry about the impact on their profitability, it is suggested that the decision to press the interest margin further may be more of a political move to stimulate the economy. Additionally, there is pressure in Hong Kong for the government to relax restrictions on buying homes, such as stamp duties and down payment requirements. However, whether these measures will be effective in boosting the housing market remains uncertain.
Different Market Sentiments and Potential Policies
The contrast between market sentiments in Japan and China is evident, with Japanese equities experiencing a rally and Chinese stocks facing challenges. Japan's corporate reform and stability are seen as factors contributing to its growth story, while China's regulatory regime and lack of predictability hinder its market. Investors burned by China's volatility are looking toward Japan as an alternative. However, it is uncertain whether these trends will continue, and Japan's ability to escape deflation remains a question. Meanwhile, in China, the focus is on stimulating sentiment and stability, but psychology plays a crucial role, as households remain reluctant to spend due to past experiences and uncertainties surrounding the economy.
David Qu, Bloomberg China economist joins the program to talk about the mark response to China's LPR changes. Shuli Ren, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, sits down with us to take a look a how the Japanese economy compares to China's. Adam Haigh, Bloomberg Finance Editor, joins the program to discuss Capital One's plan to buy Discover.